Observations on Crime Rates per 100,000 Inhabitants in the United States and Virginia, 1970-2010

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

Crime rates in Virginia and the United States have declined dramatically between 1990 and 2010 for both violent crime and property crime.

Violent crime rates per 100,000 residents in Virginia in 2010 are 29 per cent less than in 1970.

Property crime rates per 100,000 residents in Virginia in 2010 are 31 per cent less than in 1970.

Crime rates in Virginia for forcible rape, robbery and motor vehicle theft peaked in the early 1990’s. Burglary rates peaked in the 1980’s.

In the last nine years crime rates in Virginia for murder, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary and larceny/theft were at their lowest levels since the 1960’s.

A number of factors have been cited that influenced crime rates in Virginia and the United States from 1970-2010. The most important factors include: 

Effective targeted initiatives by state and local police departments including focusing on “hot spots” and adjustments in public safety initiatives depending on need.

Protective defensive actions by citizens and private sector initiatives and investments to insure safe environments.

Growth in community based programs geared to improve the life of citizens, including opportunities for young adult males. 

Changes in drug market patterns and lower addiction rates. 

Reductions in the enforcement of laws relative to the use of drugs including marijuana.

Statutory changes through sentencing reform in many states.

Use of alternatives to incarceration for less serious criminal offences in many states.

Reduction of felonies to misdemeanours for minor offenses. 

Improvements in the collection and reporting of criminal offenses in general and especially in the 1970’s and 1980’s.

For sexual offenses two trends are noted. Initially the number of crimes reported grew with increased awareness of the extent of misconduct and statutory additions to the list of actions that would be regarded as offenses. In more recent times persons are often reluctant to report sexual crimes. Sexual crimes predominantly involve acquaintances and family members and victims may be reluctant to report sexual offenses due to the police involvement. The increasingly punitive sentencing and restrictions placed on convicted offenders often provides a barrier to reporting incidents.

What is not clear is whether the increased reliance on incarceration in the past 40 years has had any impact on crime rates. Critics suggest that high crime areas may become destabilized because of criminal sanctions, the removal of males from the community, loss of income and parenting providers and a general unwillingness to form stable families which can increase crime as opposed to serving as a deterrent to controlling illegal activity.

It is not clear that there is any particular relationship between increasing the rate of incarceration of residents and lower crime rates.

Overall states that lowered incarceration rates between 2000 and 2009 had greater success in reducing violent crime rates than did states that increased incarceration rates.

Between 2000 and 2009 the average increase for the top 25 states (including Virginia) in the rate of sentencing was 70 prisoners per 100,000 residents and the average violent crime rate decreased by 60 incidents per 100,000 residents.

Between 2000 and 2009 the average change for the bottom 25 states in the rate of sentencing was a decrease of 30 sentenced prisoners per 100,000 residents and the average violent crime rate decreased by 87 per 100,000 residents.